India, the second-biggest grower of rice, may produce more than previously forecast after late rains increased planting and yield, likely cooling global prices.
Output of monsoon-sown grain may total 71.65 million metric tons, more than the 69.45 million tons estimated last month, the farm ministry said today. Uttar Pradesh, the nation’s main rice- growing state, received widespread rain in August and September, aiding the standing crop, the ministry said.
Global rice prices have surged 41 percent from this year’s low after Philippines, the biggest buyer, hastened purchases for next year and on speculation India, the second-biggest consumer, may make purchases abroad for the first time in two decades.
The price reached a record last year as concerns that there would be food shortages prompted exporters including Vietnam and India to curb exports, sparking food riots across the globe from Haiti to Egypt. Rough rice for March delivery in Chicago traded $16.16 per 100 pounds at 5 p.m. Mumbai time.
India is yet to decide on importing buying as reserves are adequate to meet demand, Trade Minister Anand Sharma told reporters earlier today in New Delhi.
The government will have 42 million tons available for sale to the poor in the year to March 31, compared with a requirement of 25 million tons, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service said Dec. 7. That may help the nation avoid “large-scale” imports, the agency said.
Output of lentils may reach 94.4 million tons, higher than 92.2 million tons estimated in November, and production of all grains may be 98.8 million tons, compared with the prediction of 96.6 million tons, the ministry said.
India is trying to increase the output of wheat and other winter-sown grains by 8.5 million tons to partly make up for a smaller monsoon crop. Wheat output may be “better” than last year as sowing is progressing well, Junior Farm Minister K.V. Thomas told reporters in New Delhi today.
The country produced a record 80.58 million tons of wheat in the 2008-09 seasons, compared with 78.57 million tons a year ago, according to the farm ministry. Wheat, planted in October and harvested in March and April, makes up more than 70 percent of the winter-sown grain production.
The government, after raising the Kharif rice production estimate by two million tonnes, today said the country may not need to import the staple food grain as a higher yield is likely after the late rains in August and September.
Rice imports may not happen as the production situation has improved," Agriculture Secretary T Nanda Kumar said on the sidelines of a CII function.
The empowered group of ministers on food earlier had decided that there would be no rice import for now as there is sufficient availability.
Asked if paddy procurement would improve, Kumar said, it will be better than expected."The government yesterday had revised upward its rice output forecast by 2.2 million tonnes to 71.65 MT for 2009-10 Kharif season due to a rise in area and expectation of higher yield following late rains in August and September.
In the first advance estimates for 2009-10 seasons, the government had pegged Kharif rice output at 69.45 million tonnes, lower by over 15 million tonnes from last Kharif. Kharif production has been hit due to twin impact of drought and floods in several parts of the country.
The revised estimates came after reviewing crop conditions, especially after rains during August-September in states like Uttar Pradesh.It was found that paddy acreage and yield in UP has risen due to late rains. Summer paddy is usually sown during June and July and the crop is harvested from October.
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